Just two weeks into the season, there has been no shortage of chaos in the College Football Playoff race.
Florida State fell flat on its face in both Week 0 and Week 1, seemingly knocking itself out of the race for the 12-team Playoff already. In Week 2, Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois at home as a 28.5-point favorite, just when its Playoff path appeared clear following a road win at Texas A&M.
Advertisem*nt
The nice part about the expanded Playoff is that an early-season loss isn’t backbreaking to a team’s Playoff hopes. Sure, it’s going to be an uphill battle, but in the four-team format, an early loss could do a lot more damage to a team’s chances. Now, we are going to have teams’ stock falling and rising throughout the season. And it’s going to be a bumpy road from week to week.
Every Tuesday, I’ll take a look at which teams are trending up and down in my College Football Playoff Projections model. It’s a long season, so most teams will likely find themselves on both sides in this space, especially considering a team’s odds of making the Playoff are dependent on other teams’ results too.
GO DEEPEROur College Football Playoff model projections: Notre Dame out; USC and Tennessee move inFlorida State’s odds plummeted from 54 percent in the preseason to 1 percent after Week 1 thanks to its losses to Georgia Tech and Boston College. Here’s who we’re monitoring after Week 2:
Stock up
Rising Playoff chances
| Team | Preseason | After Week 2 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
USC | 9.1% | 59.5% | 50.4 |
Tennessee | 17.9% | 56.6% | 38.7 |
Miami | 19.3% | 46.8% | 27.5 |
Utah | 44.5% | 70.2% | 25.7 |
Ole Miss | 45.7% | 65.8% | 20.1 |
Alabama | 54.9% | 74.4% | 19.5 |
Texas | 70.2% | 88.7% | 18.5 |
Louisville | 11.5% | 28.1% | 16.6 |
Missouri | 30.5% | 40.3% | 9.8 |
UNLV | 1.0% | 8.3% | 7.3 |
USC
The Trojans entered the season with just a 9 percent chance to make the Playoff, according to my model. After a 2-0 start, including a win over LSU, they have risen to 60 percent and are the projected 10-seed with a first-round showdown with Alabama.
Maybe that’s a little optimistic for USC, but Lincoln Riley consistently produces top offenses and new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn seems to have the defense much improved through two weeks. USC held LSU to 20 points and followed that with a shutout of Utah State. The past few years under Alex Grinch were a disaster, and if USC has a competent — or dare I say good — defense, it’s going to be playing into December in its first season in the Big Ten.
Another thing that has helped the Trojans’ Playoff odds has been the fact that future opponents Michigan, Notre Dame and Wisconsin have fallen a good amount in my model’s rankings through two weeks. USC is off this week before heading to Michigan in Week 4 and then hosting Wisconsin in Week 5. If USC manages to get through those two games unscathed, the schedule shapes up nicely to the point where it could be favored in every game but one (vs. Penn State on Oct. 12).
GO DEEPERCFP Bubble Watch: The changing perceptions of USC, Iowa State — and Notre DameTennessee
I probably underrated new starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s ability heading into the season. Tennessee made the Playoff in 18 percent of my model’s simulations in the preseason, but that number has climbed to 57 percent, with a big jump following a 51-10 win against NC State. The Vols are now projected to be the No. 11 seed.
Advertisem*nt
Tennessee ranks 12th in my overall rankings, with a top-five offense and a defense that’s now inside the top 40. I’m curious if the latter is a bit low, too, considering the talent Tennessee is showing on defense. NC State managed only an 18th percentile success rate performance against the Vols on Saturday.
The only thing holding Tennessee back in its Playoff odds is road trips to Oklahoma and Georgia, plus a home date with Alabama. If the Vols manage to go 1-2 in those games — my model projects them to win at least one — I think they’ll find themselves in the Playoff without any other hiccups.
Tennessee surged to No. 7 in the AP poll after beating NC State. (Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)
Miami
I wasn’t a believer in the Hurricanes in the preseason, and I still have questions about how far they can actually go. However, considering how bad they beat Florida and the current state of the ACC, Miami is in a great spot. It’s my model’s favorite to win the ACC, which projects the Canes as the No. 4 seed. They’ve jumped from a 19 percent chance to make the Playoff to a 47 percent chance.
Washington State transfer quarterback Cam Ward has cemented himself as an early Heisman Trophy contender, and my model projects Miami as a top-15 offense. The defense isn’t too shabby either. The Canes are the most balanced team in the ACC, and as long as they have learned how to properly run the clock out, 10 wins should happen.
The schedule sets up nicely, as my model has Miami favored in every game but one (a small underdog at Louisville on Oct. 19). The Canes avoid Clemson, and Florida State and Virginia Tech underperforming early in the season has paved the way for Miami to be at the front of the line in the ACC for a first-round bye.
Stock down
Falling Playoff chances
| team | preseason | now | delta |
|---|---|---|---|
Florida State | 53.5% | 0.4% | -53.1 |
LSU | 57.6% | 24.5% | -33.1 |
Michigan | 36.8% | 4.5% | -32.3 |
Notre Dame | 61.8% | 31.8% | -30.0 |
Oklahoma | 25.0% | 6.5% | -18.5 |
Oklahoma State | 21.7% | 5.4% | -16.3 |
23.7% | 9.6% | -14.1 | |
Virginia Tech | 19.6% | 6.1% | -13.5 |
Boise State | 33.6% | 23.0% | -10.6 |
Oregon | 86.4% | 76.4% | -10.0 |
Michigan
Michigan has seen its College Football Playoff odds drop from 37 percent to 5 percent after a forgettable win against Fresno State and a blowout loss to Texas. I wasn’t very high on Michigan coming into the year, and it has still performed under my expectations. My model had Michigan as the second team out before the season started, and now it’s not even on the bubble — or close to it. At this point, it would be a shock if the Wolverines are able to make the Playoff, with USC, Oregon and a trip to Ohio State still on the schedule.
Advertisem*nt
The defense has been fine through two games. Yes, Quinn Ewers and Texas got the best of Michigan, but it’s hard for me to downgrade the Wolverines too much against an elite offense. The Michigan offense, though, is worse than expected. Through two games, Michigan has a 37 percent success rate and is having trouble creating explosive plays. My model projects the Wolverines as a borderline top-50 offense.
Without a competent offense, it won’t matter how good the Michigan defense is this season. With what’s left on the schedule, eight wins will be a good result, as Michigan looks like a more a more talented version of Iowa as it stands.
GO DEEPERHow serious are Michigan's problems? Final thoughts after the loss to TexasNotre Dame
Heading into Week 2, fresh off a victory at Texas A&M, Notre Dame was projected to make the College Football Playoff 73 percent of the time and host a home Playoff game 57 percent of the time. Then Northern Illinois came to South Bend and stunned the Fighting Irish. The upset loss resulted in Notre Dame slipping to a 32 percent chance to make the Playoff and a 15 percent chance of hosting a first-round game.
Just like rival Michigan, the offense is the problem. Notre Dame had a 28th percentile expected points added (EPA) per play Saturday, which is unacceptable against a MAC school. Throw in its inability to generate explosive plays, and disaster isn’t hard to predict. Without a better offense, Notre Dame will find itself in close games all season.
I should note that the defense struggled to get stops against Northern Illinois as well, as the Huskies had a 44 percent success rate against the Irish. Was this a product of the defense being on the field too much after the offense struggled? Time will tell.
The rest of the schedule is manageable, so Playoff hopes aren’t totally wiped out. The Irish could still be favored in every game but USC. However, with such a bad loss on the resume, I wonder if the committee would penalize a 10-2 Notre Dame more than a 9-3 SEC team.
GO DEEPERSampson: Notre Dame has been here before under Marcus Freeman. That's the problemOregon
Oregon may be 2-0, but it has not performed close to preseason expectations. It managed just a 10-point win against Idaho, an FCS opponent, and beat Boise State on a last-second field goal. That has resulted in its College Football Playoff odds dropping 10 percentage points since the start of the season, from 86 percent to 76 percent.
Advertisem*nt
From my perspective, the Ducks haven’t been as strong as believed to be in the trenches. They’ve struggled to find explosive plays and have had issues on third downs and in the red zone. Dillon Gabriel has been pressured on 28.7 percent of dropbacks and has a -0.50 EPA/play on those dropbacks. That’s too high of a pressure rate, considering the schedule the Ducks have played so far. That will need to improve before Big Ten play.
If there is a positive, Oregon is 2-0 and the schedule is favorable. The Ducks don’t play USC or Penn State, and my model projects them as double-digit favorites in every game but Ohio State and at Michigan. And at this rate, I’m not sure Michigan can score against a quality opponent. So Oregon benefits from its schedule, even if the results through two games make me think it could lose a game it’s not supposed to and isn’t as safe a bet to make the Playoff as it was thought to be in the preseason.
GO DEEPERWhat we learned about the CFP in Week 2: Notre Dame's outlook, Clemson fights back(Top photos of Miller Moss and Sherrone Moore: Michael Owens and Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
Austin Mock uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances in the NFL, college football, MLB and other sports. Follow Austin on Twitter @amock419
